I too enjoy the skeptical optimist. But in 08 the budget just goes into balance. The deficit does not go away.

The deficit will disappear on Jan 21 2009, but only - IF - a democrat is sworn in.

The deficit itself won't disappear, just the reporting of it.

Rick - You're confusing the deficit with the debt. As to the real deficit, it will not go away. The politicians have masked the size of the deficit by including Social Security receipts in with the rest of the revenue. That's how we were able to claim a "surplus" during the Clinton years. If the Dims don't fuck up the economy by raising taxes, and the economy continues to grow, we'll have another "surplus" in 2008.

i have long thought of myself as an optimistic pessimist.

i beleive the glass is half full, but i think someone pee'd in it.

and if a dim gives me the glass, i'm sure they pee'd in it.

If the economy is doing well, why is it that so many Americans say the economy isn't doing well? It's because for most Americans, this "great economy" hasn't gotten to them. They don't have more money. They're not doing better. The rich are getting richer. The poor are getting poorer. And the middle class is getting squeezed hard by rising debt, health care expenses and more.

Republicans aren't going to be able to run on the "great economy" in 2008 any more than they could in 2006. It isn't a "great economy" for most Americans.

Sally - If there were a Dimocrat president in office, the LSM would be talking about what a great economy we have right now. Unemployment is low as is inflation. We are creating jobs. The deficit is dropping. Why? Because tax receipts are up. Why? Because the economy is growing. People are making more money and paying more taxes. The stock market is up and this time it's due to value and not the dot com bubble that we had during the latter part of the 90's. It's a great economy. Take off your leftist blinders.

Now as to your leftist "The rich are getting richer. The poor are getting poorer" statement, the rich are getting richer because they continue to do the things that make them rich.

I'm getting richer because even though I'm retired (and I retired young at 58), I am still increasing my wealth by wisely investing my money and not living beyond my means. Let me restate that I started off life poor and now I'm rich, as is my sister. We both became snotty rich fucks by getting an education and working hard. Granted, I didn't finish college, but I got a good technical education in the Navy and I attended college after I got out, and I went to night school after starting work for IBM. I never quit learning after joining IBM. I took every advantage of every educational opportunity offered to me. I wound up in education, first teaching top of the line hardware (mainframes and peripherals), and after my accident, I taught myself MVS and VM and wrote and taught software courses while installing and maintaining the operating systems I used to teach. For a period of three years I was essentially working two full time jobs. I got compensated accordingly. That is how one becomes a snotty rich fuck.

As to the poor getting poorer, it's because they continue to do the things that make them poor. They drop out of school. They have children out of wedlock. They have children they cannot afford. They live beyond their means. They invest in lottery tickets. The only excuse for being poor in this country is a catastrophic illness or an accident. Other than that, the poor are that way because they made shitty choices.

Sally,

Your adherence to Marx's outdated and discredited dogma--"the rich get richer and the poor get poorer"--shows your ignorance. First of all, anyone who believes this steaming pile of verbal manure is putting faith before reason in an arena where faith means little and reason can be brought to bear: economics.

The simple fact of the matter is that the rich get richer and the poor get richer, too. It's just that they get richer at different rates (understanding rates of change and that they can differ is perhaps the only useful knowledge I gained from calculus).

Doubt it? Compare today's poor in America with those of 20 years ago. Now compare both groups with the poor of 40 years ago. Now, compare those three groups with the poor of 60 years ago. Repeat until you can see that today's poor, with multiple TVs, refrigerators, cars, air conditioners, and the like are better off than the Joads were on the trip from the dustbowl to California (which had not yet been transmogrified into Mexifonia--but that's another issue). Just this simple thought exercise shows how today's poor are far better off than than poor of yesteryear. This disproves Marx's theology.

I have only one disagreement with Denny's argument above. While a good work ethic and education are important, IQ is the single best predictor of one's economic success later in life. In general, people who are smart figure out how to get rich; they marry other smart, possibly rich, people, and make smart babies, who perpetuate their parents' intelligence and propensity for making wealth. (IQ has been shown to be up to 80% genetic.) The same argument applies, mutatis mutandis, for the "intellectually challenged" and the generations of low IQs and poor economic performance they generate. Not coincidentally, there is also a strong correlation between IQ and incarceration.

But pointing all that out isn't politically correct.

Sally, guess what? I run/own a business. A business where most of the money spent is disposable income (pet health care). Guess what? We grew our gross by 38% last year and had less people "defer" care then ever before. You know what that means? The economy isn't doing well, it's F'ing booming. The people know it, feel it and act on it. Please, I beg you, stop spouting off liberal talking points all the time. You sound like a great commercial for the Democrat/socialist agenda and they must be so oh very proud of you. The followers of the liberal democratic quackery are so sheep-like that if the media and their almighty leaders in the Dimocratic party told them the sky was green long enough, they would all believe it. Therefore, they are hoping if they tell the American people the economy sucks long enough, they would believe it. Oh and as far as your class warfare tactics, being poor sucks I guess. Maybe those lazy bastards should try to change their lot in life huh? But if you had it your "parties" way, we'd give it all away to them because the groups is so pitiful.

In Europe, we hear a lot about the possibility of your real-estate market falling down. Is it something you really worry about? (it seems that you real-estate market is very influent in your economy, because of a peculiar loan system I'm not familiar with)

There's some talk right now that the real estate market is going to collapse, but I don't understand the details of why some folks predict this and what affect their predictions are going to have on the market. I do know that some mortgage companies are going bankrupt because of their special niche market (sub prime borrowers) defaulting on their loans. Dumb asses. Poor people shouldn't be given home loans. Every time I see some company advertising creative financing, nothing down etc. etc., I just think, there's another bunch of foreclosures my tax money will be going to bail out. Pisses me off. Since when did our country give all that want it, the RIGHT to own a home. When I was a kid, I remember not living in an owned house until I was in 3rd grade, which is when my dad could finally afford one. Damn socialist state we are becoming.

Sally the liberal socialist...

It comes as no great surprise to me you are as ignorant of the economy as you are about the War on Terror.I state this from a position of owning a small business. "Precision tool & die/custom machining".

My business which was falling slightly during the Clintonian wonder years as the LSM makes them out to be has grown a minimum in volume 10% a year each & every year since Bush took office. I do not attribute this to Bush per se but his economic policies which stimulated the mild recession from the Clinton do nothing for business era. Last year my business grew by 31% for the single largest increase during my 28 years in business.

I suggest you leave the analysis of economic stability to those who really understand what drives the economy & recognize political posturing for what it is.

Sally,
One indicator of economic growth in this country are the Gazinta businesses. I used to work for one of them and am still a stock holder. Gazinta is not a name, its a feaure. They make products that go into end goods, but do not market end items, or else a very small percentage of end items. Take Gates, they make hose belts and other assorted rubber products. When they show signs of a slow down, rest assured, the market is about to swing. Briggs and stratton might also qualify since they make motors for many residential, comercial and industrial products.
As for the poor getting poorer, I started out adult life as the atypical poor person. Today I am a multi millionaire. How did I do this? I don't drink, don't smoke, don't play the lottery. I have one excess, but I keep spending on it under control, and it makes money for me. I do not buy new vehicles. I have acquired many skills in life. I have been a Judge, a machinest, a welder, a carpenter. Incidently, one of the best sheetrockers I ever met was a district attorney. He teaches the trade to poor kids as part of community out reach.
What about my siblings? All started out on the same track as me. All of them are now well off.
By contrast, I had several uncles who were rich. I've watched their kids squander the loot and go from millionaires into the poor house. One step cousin has been bankrupt at least three times.
Life is about choices. The poor are poor because of poor choices. Of course, if you ask my step cousin, he will claim others are to blame, and not his addiction to crack cocaine.
Need I say more?

It appears that Sally has flown the coop for a while. Pity. I heard another interesting tidbit today. Most 1st generation millionaires started out poor. That pretty much puts the kibosh on the poor getting poorer meme doesn't it? BTW, even dumb people can become well off. All they have to do is stay in school, develop a work ethic and not have children they cannot afford. Those rules work for dumb people too. Remember, Sally thinks I'm dumb (and I'm a millionaire) because I use "sumpin'" instead of "something" and I dropped out of college. Another tidbit. Bill Gates dropped out of college too.

Denny.....

I get a big kick out of the liberals who place such a high value on education for education`s sake. It is never whether an individual is competent , it is the number & type of degrees which one accumulates.

My personal favorite for futility on parade is the prerequisite "MBA". It is well documented corporations place more emphasis for this degree then any other. When one journeys thru the degree mill of their choice & first earns a "BA" then a "MBA"...they find upon entering the real world the educational process neglects any training or experience for actually doing anything. It is my experience "MBA" means might be able. It is amazing that so many other technical cultures do quite well with out the mandate so prevelant here in the United States.

We would be wise to de-empasize the importance of education not really required for the career being contemplated. Degrees are fine, for many they take up wasted space in the underwear drawer & have little if any relevance for the career one labors in. One should also remember the very first degrees bestowed were done by people who did so to themselves to establish an artificial benchmark of achievment.

There are many reasons for continuing education beyond actual career requirement but as you well know many of our most successful & wealthy did so with out benefit of an educational achievement proclamation. This fact alone establish`s a degree plastered on your wall does not assure success, that still requires hard work , common sense & a desire to excel.